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Program Profile

Safer Cities Initiative

Evidence Rating: Promising - One study Promising - One study

Program Description

Program Goals
The main goal of the Safer Cities Initiative (SCI) was to reduce crime in the Los Angeles, Calif., area known as “Skid Row,” an area with a large homeless population concentrated in a densely packed area of economic disadvantage. The section had high rates of crime and victimization, including open-air drug markets, prostitution, theft, robbery gangs, and vandalism. As an attempt to combat rising levels of crime and improve public order in the Skid Row area, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) implemented the SCI as a 68-week program starting in 2005.

Target Population
The Skid Row area was targeted by the SCI based on the high-risk characteristics of the area’s inhabitants. At the time the SCI was implemented, the area had a 2:1 ratio of males to females. At least one third had substance abuse problems, one fourth were mentally ill, and one fifth had disabilities. Approximately half of the homeless population had a high school education, less than one fifth were employed, and at least one fifth of the population consisted of homeless families. A large fraction of the Los Angeles County homeless population was located in Skid Row, and crime among the homeless was a serious issue in the area.

Program Activities/Key Personnel
The first law enforcement effort to address Skid Row began with a pilot program conducted by the LAPD in September 2005. Known as the “Main Street Pilot Project,” it sought to reduce the density of homeless encampments using fines and citations. After a successful implementation of the pilot program, the full-scale version of the SCI was launched on Sept. 17, 2006. Fifty full-time officers were stationed to the streets of downtown Los Angeles, where they broke up homeless encampments, issued citations, and made arrests for various offenses. Specifically, encampments along South Main Street between Fourth and Seventh Streets, the Historic Core, were proclaimed a public health nuisance, and sanctions were mandated by a Los Angeles City statute. In conjunction with this effort, portable toilets were removed from the area to deter homeless people from loitering. The LAPD also targeted crimes, such as public intoxication, drug use, and prostitution, all of which were believed to make the area more inviting to criminals.

In addition, four to five officers were placed on foot patrol in the Historic Core area to concentrate exclusively on handling nuisance offenses and maintaining order. One of the LAPD’s mobile command stations was placed near Skid Row to facilitate law enforcement efforts. Undercover vice teams were placed in areas believed to be open-air drug markets and hotbeds of prostitution. Lastly, a special undercover squad concentrated on local robberies.


Program Theory
SCI was based on the “broken windows” theory of crime, which posits a connection between neighborhood disorder and serious crime. The premise of this theory is that public order offenses signal that neighborhood residents either do not care to maintain their neighborhood or do not have the resources to do so. Thus if a window is broken and left unrepaired in a neighborhood, it is a sign that no one cares about the neighborhood enough to repair it. Theoretically, then, if public order offenses are left unchecked, the social order in the neighborhood will decline and lead to an increase in serious criminal behavior.

Evaluation Outcomes

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Study 1
When evaluating the effects of the Safer Cities Initiative (SCI) in Los Angeles, Calif., Berk and MacDonald (2010) found similar patterns for all three types of crime (nuisance, property, and violent crimes). Each type of crime showed a significant decline around the time of the pilot program, and an additional small decline after the full-scale SCI was implemented. This trend was found in treatment and comparison areas; however, results of the regression analysis indicated a downward trend unique to the Central Division of Los Angeles, where the initiative was targeted.

Nuisance Crime
The researchers observed a substantial decline in nuisance crimes in the Central Division during the implementation of the pilot program, and a smaller decline during the implementation of the SCI. However, the comparison areas showed similar declines in the number of nuisance crimes, as did the city overall. When controlling for these similar variations in the surrounding areas, the impact of SCI appears to be small.

As mentioned, however, the results of the regression analysis indicated some evidence of a gradual downward trend in nuisance crime that was unique to the Central Division. Specifically, after the pilot program began, the amount of nuisance crime in the area lessened, to about 76 percent of the amount before the pilot program started. After implementation of SCI, the amount of nuisance crime was reduced to about 70 percent of the pre-intervention (both pilot and SCI) amount.


Property Crime
The amount of property crimes varied over the 8 years of data, from a low of 21 crimes in a week to a high of 181. There was a significant drop in property crime in the Central Division around the time the pilot program was launched, and a smaller downward shift around the time the SCI was implemented. The comparison areas and the overall city demonstrated similar declines in property crimes.

The results of the regression analysis indicated some evidence of a gradual downward trend in property crime that was unique to the Central Division: After the start of the pilot program, the amount of property crime in the area was reduced to about 78 percent of its pre-intervention amount. After SCI implementation, the amount of property crime declined to about 65 percent of the amount that had existed before either the pilot or SCI had been implemented.


Violent Crime
Similar to the other findings, there was a large drop in violent crime in the Central Division around the implementation of the pilot program and a smaller drop when the SCI was launched. As with the other findings, these patterns were experienced in the surrounding divisions as well as in the entire city.

The results of the regression analysis indicated some evidence of a gradual downward trend in violent crime that was unique to the Central Division. Specifically, after the pilot program began, the amount of violent crime in the area declined to about 84 percent of its pre-intervention amount. After SCI implementation, the amount of violent crime declined further, to about 61 percent of the amount that had existed before either of the interventions had been implemented.


Crime Displacement and Spillover Effects
Additional analyses were conducted to determine whether criminal activity was displaced to nearby areas, and no evidence of crime displacement in the comparison areas was found. In fact, there was evidence of spillover effects— effects detected outside the targeted area. That is, the pilot program and the SCI program produced indirect crime-reduction effects for all three types of crime in the surrounding comparison areas.
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Evaluation Methodology

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Study 1
Berk and MacDonald (2010) used a time-series quasi-experimental design to test the impact of the Safer Cities Initiative (SCI) on crime rates in Los Angeles, Calif. The experimental group selected was the Central Division, a downtown area designated by the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) that included the Skid Row section of the city. Four bordering police divisions were selected as comparison groups: Northeast, Rampart, Hollenbeck, and Newton. These areas were selected based on their proximity to the Central Division, as well as their similarities in social and demographic features. Further, these areas did not have any type of operation similar to SCI in place during the time of its implementation. The comparison areas engaged in normal police operations during the study period, while the Central Division launched the SCI crime-control effort.

The data was measured by counts of reported crime per week, and was separated into three types of crime: nuisance crimes, property crimes, and violent crimes. This distinction was made to assess the impact that the program had on different types of crime, particularly nuisance crimes. Data from the LAPD was analyzed for the period of Jan. 1, 2000, to Dec. 31, 2007, and 419 weeks of data (8 years) were used in the analysis. The analysis included comparisons of weekly crime counts, taking into account when the pilot program and the SCI were in place. The pilot program began Sept. 27, 2005 (week 300); while the SCI operation began Sept.17, 2006 (week 351) and continued for 68 weeks until the end of data collection.

Counts of weekly crime were analyzed over the time period in order to observe changes that could be attributed to the SCI intervention. A regression analysis was done to isolate the impact of both the pilot program and the SCI on different types of crime in the Central Division and in the comparison areas. Crime counts were also analyzed for the city overall, which included treatment and comparison areas.
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Cost

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There is no cost information available for this program.
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Evidence-Base (Studies Reviewed)

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These sources were used in the development of the program profile:

Study 1
Berk, Richard and John MacDonald. 2010. “Policing the Homeless: An Evaluation of Efforts to Reduce Homeless-Related Crime.” Criminology and Public Policy 9:813-840.
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Additional References

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These sources were used in the development of the program profile:

Blasi, Gary. 2007. “Policing Our Way Out of Homelessness?: The First Year of the Safer Cities Initiative on Skid Row.” Los Angeles, Calif.: USC Center for Sustainable Cities.
http://www.ced.berkeley.edu/downloads/pubs/faculty/wolch_2007_report-card-policing-homelessness.pdf

Blasi, Gary, and Forrest Stuart. 2008. “Has the Safer Cities Initiative in Skid Row Reduced Serious Crime?” Research Report. Los Angeles, Calif. UCLA School of Law and UCLA Department of Sociology. (This study was reviewed but did not meet CrimeSolutions.gov criteria for inclusion in the overall program rating.)
http://cdn.law.ucla.edu/SiteCollectionDocuments/missing%20files/did_safer_cities_reduce_crime_in_skid_row.pdf

Los Angeles Almanac. 2009. “Homelessness in Los Angeles County.” Accessed May 16, 2011.
http://laalmanac.com/social/so14.htm
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Program Snapshot

Gender: Both

Geography: Urban

Setting (Delivery): High Crime Neighborhoods/Hot Spots

Program Type: Community and Problem Oriented Policing, Foot Patrol, Community Crime Prevention , Situational Crime Prevention, Violence Prevention

Current Program Status: Not Active

Researcher:
Richard Berk
Professor of Statistics and Criminology
University of Pennsylvania, Department of Criminology
3718 Locust Walk, McNeil Building, Suite 483
Philadelphia PA 19104
Website
Email

Researcher:
John MacDonald
Associate Professor of Criminology
University of Pennsylvania, Department of Criminology
3718 Locus Walk, McNeil Building, Suite 483
Philadelphia PA 19104
Phone: 215.746.3623
Website
Email